1, 2, 3 to nuke impotency
Nuclear apartheid ended; energy deal energised; it is 123, now go. The Indian media celebrates the US-India nuclear deal, thus. In contrast, the US State Department, in its press note (October 3, 2008) adds one crucial step to operationalise the deal. And that is the President will make two certifications required under the law. They are: one, that terms of the USIndia deal are consistent with the obligations of the US under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ; two, that it is the policy of the US to work with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to further restrict transfer of equipment and technology related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel; these certificates, read with the 123 agreement, turn a de-facto nuke potent India into nuke impotent India. As if to reaffirm this, Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, told the media in Delhi on Saturday that the deal would be off if India did a Pokharan again. A shaken Pranab Mukherjee has stepped back, and postponed the signing of the deal that was to coincidewith her visit to Delhi on October 4.
To understand what the certifications by George Bush mean to India, here is the picture of the nuke world, as it stands today.
The world nuke weapons club consists of five nations that had tested nuke bombs before 1967 — starting with the US in 1945, then the USSR, afterwards the UK and finally France and China in 1964.
In 1968 the five-member nuke weapons club initiated a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT backdated the last date for entry into the nuke weapons club as 1.1.1967. The intent was that no other nation could become a nuke weapons power, and so the effect was that the nuke weapons club was to be eternally a five-member club.
All other nations were to be prevented from acquiring nuke weapons thereafter. These nuke impotent nations were required to sign the NPT admitting and declaring themselves as non-nuke states and give up their right to develop nuke weapons. The nuke weapons powers would assure them that they would not nuke the non-nuke weapons nations. The NPT was thus forced on most non-nuke nations by 1970. But India defied; Pakistan and Israel too followed India. India finally dared the five-member club and tested its nuke at Pokharan in 1998, Pakistan followed. So, today you have India, Pakistan and also North Korea, as de-facto nuke weapons powers, but, the NPT records say they have no nukes! The NPT had unjustly divided the world nations into two nuclear castes; one, the nuke weapons states as the higher caste and two, non-nuke weapons states as the lower caste. The status of a nuke weapons state is not just a titular ornamentation like the Padma Awards. The nuke weapons states have set one rule for themselves and another for nuke impotent states. The nuke weapons states could keep on adding to their nuke weapon stockpile, test them and use atomic reactors for civil or military purpose without mandatory inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
IAEA, a UN agency to ensure that civil nuclear reactors are not misused for weaponising programmes, has no power over the reactors of the nuke weapons powers. The duty of the nuke weapons states under the NPT is actually their power to police and ensure that the others perpetually remain non-nuke weapons states, in the lower nuke caste. So, the civil nuclear reactors of nonnuke weapons states are subjected to a safeguards check by the IAEA to rule out stealthy use of the reactors to produce nuclear weapons.Now come to India. For thirty years upto 1998 India, even when it had no weapon, had refused to sign the NPT that would formally declare it nuke impotent.
That’s why it could develop and test the nuke bomb in 1998. But by signing the 123 and IAEA safeguards agreements now, India has formally declared itself as a nonnuke weapons state despite possessing the weapons.
Now have a look at the nuclear weapons stockpile of the nuke high caste nations. In 1968 when the NPT was signed the nonweapons states had 36,633 atomic bombs in stock. The nation-wise tally then was: the US 28,884, the USSR 9,399, the UK 310, France 4 and China 1. After 20 years of the nonproliferation regime, their stockpile of weapons did not fall, but, increased by 2/3 to 61,549 with the US having 23,077, the USSR 37,383, the UK 300, France 410, and China 400. So the five nuke weapons powers kept multiplying their arsenal but condemned others to nuclear impotency! This is precisely why India refused to sign the NPT.
Where does India stand today as a weapons state? In 2000, India’s estimated nuke stockpile was 85 to 90 bombs.With China’s 400 and Pakistan’s estimated 45-90, making a total of almost 500 bombs between them, the weapons ratio is almost 5:1 in their favour, and against India.
So India needs to rapidly add to its stockpile of nuke bombs to balance between itself and its two hostile neighbours. This is precisely what the second certificate of George Bush will stall. Stated in simple terms, India makes nuke bombs by reprocessing the fuel spent at its civil nuclear reactors into plutonium and using the plutonium for the bombs. The second Bush certificate ensures that all NSG nations deny this critical technology to India. The first Bush certificate enforces the non-weapons state norms of the NPT on India. The Bush certificates are diametrically opposite to what the Indian government has been assuring the Indian parliament and the public.
On top of it is the statement by Condoleezza Rice at Delhi warning against nuke test by India. Forget the US, the NSG’s approval is a permit. India has got it. Now it can shop anywhere, particularly in France and Russia, and get supplies; say the apologists of the deal. France and Russia can certainly give technology and reactors.
But what about uranium? The Indian government has repeatedly told Parliament that the deal ensures uninterrupted supply of uranium; a clear misrepresentation.
But, even if it were not, who has the uranium to give? Australia which has over a million tonnes of uranium has said ‘no’ to India. Russia has just 1,78,000 tonnes; US some 1,02,000 tonnes. France, UK and China have no uranium. India has about 78,000 tonnes, with a potential to double it. But how come then France, China, the UK, the USSR and the US, which have no or small uranium stocks, have been able to pile such huge nuke weapons, operate hundreds of reactors? Simple.
Being higher caste nuke nations, the NPT entitles them to get uranium from anywhere and use it for any purpose including for bombs, but denies it to non-weapons states.
This is the advantage a weapons state gets.
Before the 123 deal the nuke club did not accept India as a nuke weapons state. Under the 123 deal India has formally accepted that it is not a nuke weapons state. It has also damaged its capacity to remain a de-facto nuke weapon potent state.Will the UPA government rethink at least now?!
